Blackjack Heads Up
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Playing 'Heads Up' vs. 'Full Table' Blackjack
by Fred Renzey
Fred Renzey is an 'advantage' blackjack player, and author of the highly rated 'Blackjack Bluebook II – The Simplest Winning Strategies Ever Published', a vividly detailed 217 page handbook for casino '21'. BJI readers can purchase the book at 10% discount in our store by clicking here.
Nearly all blackjack players, novices and pros alike, seem to be sensitive to how many other players are at the table. Most novices hate to play alone because they tend to feel 'overpowered' by the dealer. More customers at the table provide them with a feeling of 'reinforcement.'
On the other hand, advantage players don’t like full tables mostly because the game becomes just too slow to be profitable. So let’s have a look at crowded vs. empty blackjack tables from both the recreational and professional points of view.
Basic Strategy Player
If you don’t play blackjack with an outright advantage, then the more crowded the table is - the better off you are, period. There are a number of reasons why this is so. The first and biggest reason is:
Game Speed: A seven-handed blackjack game moves along at an average pace of about 55 rounds per hour. By contrast, if you’re playing all alone with the dealer, it’s not hard to get in 200 to 250 hands during that same time period. Since even a perfect basic strategy player has an overall disadvantage in the game, the slower the game, the less money he loses – pure and simple.
A $25-a-hand basic strategist loses an average of about 12 cents per hand, long term. At a full table, that’s maybe $7 per hour. Playing heads up, it’s about 28 bucks!
Comps: The moneysaving benefits of slowing down the game don’t end there. That’s because a comp is a comp - is a comp. They’re awarded to you mostly on your average bet, multiplied by your length of play at the table. Two hours of quarter-a-hand blackjack will generally get you a couple of buffet passes from the floorperson. Those two buffets will have cost you an average of $14 in blackjack losses playing in a ring game – or 56 bucks if you were heads up.
Coupons: Lots of home town casinos also mail out 'cashback' coupons to their regular customers that can be cashed in at the cage on their next visit. The action described above might well get you a $5 or $10 cashback coupon in the mail. I can’t swear to it, but I doubt that the value of the coupon varies with how many players were at your table.
Hand Interaction: But wait – there’s still more benefit to playing blackjack at a crowded table if you’re just a basic strategy player. This time, it’s because of Hand Interaction opportunities. Hand Interaction consists mainly of capping off other players’ double downs when they double for less than the max, or taking part of their advantageous splits when they feel insecure about doing it all themselves. Scavenging these plays brings an outright advantage to you, usually between 5% and 10% of the money you put up. Combined, double down hands and pair splits come to each player about once every nine hands.
If you’re playing heads up with the dealer, Hand Interaction is not an option. But if there are six other players with you at the table, somebody else will have a doubling hand or a pair split every round-and-a-half, on average! It’s surprising how many of them you can get a piece of if you keep your focus leaned in that direction.
Hand Interaction is of the greatest overall value to a basic strategy player when he is the smallest bettor at the table. This keeps his own personal losses to a minimum, while allowing him to gain healthy advantages on bets larger than his own.
High/Low Layouts: Finally, there’s one more thing that can help a basic strategy player’s game most when the table is crowded. Even though he doesn’t keep count of the cards played throughout the shoe, he certainly should be able to recognize an occasional barrage of high or low cards lying right there on the table.
If he’s playing heads up, he’ll see only five or six cards in a round. That doesn’t mean much to a 300 card shoe. But at a full table, he’ll see 20 or more cards laid out in plain view on the board. They can swing his chances on the following hands either way by as much as a full percentage point.
Joe Basic Strategy should ask for a lammer on his spot, and disappear for the rest of the shoe when a genuine flock of aces and faces hits the board at a full, or nearly full table. He should also triple his bet whenever he sees a board that contains at least 8 more low cards (2’s thru 6’s) than high ones (10’s and aces).
Summary
So let’s see. How much can a $25 basic strategy player help his game at a crowded $25 minimum table?
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One popular search query on the internet, according to Google, is the following question:
What is the best strategy to win playing real money blackjack?
Most of the time, when you search for blackjack strategy on the internet, you’ll find a post explaining how you should always use basic strategy.
That’s good advice, as far as it goes. But basic strategy isn’t really a strategy at all. It’s just a list of tactics.
In this post, I’ll examine the difference between a blackjack strategy and blackjack tactics.
I’ll also some advice on coming up with a strategy for winning at blackjack.
What’s the Difference between Blackjack Strategy and Blackjack Tactics?
A strategy is an overall approach to achieving a goal. With blackjack, most people have a goal of winning more money than they lose.
A tactic, on the other hand, is a specific action to take at a point during the execution of your strategy.
It’s a subtle difference, but it’s an important distinction to make.
Here’s an example of a blackjack tactic:
You get a total of 11 for your first 2 hands, and the dealer’s showing a 6. You decide to double down.
That’s a tactical decision. (It’s also the correct tactical decision.)
Here’s an example of a blackjack strategy:
You accumulate a bankroll of $10,000 before starting. You memorize and drill yourself on basic strategy until you’re 100% confident that every decision you make is mathematically correct at the blackjack table.
Then you learn the Hi-Lo Counting System, which you also practice and drill until you can do it without mistakes and without anyone knowing you’re counting.
You bet between 1% and 5% of your total bankroll on every hand, depending on the count.
That’s an example of a blackjack strategy, because it describes your overall approach to the game.
A Bankroll Management Strategy for Blackjack
I don’t remember what the context was, but years ago a poker player friend of mine mentioned that if you have a negative expectation, you need an infinite bankroll.
His point was well taken, and it applies to blackjack as well as real money poker.
The first step to having a blackjack strategy for winning is to figure out a way to get a positive mathematical expectation and managing your bankroll appropriately.
Most people understand that getting a positive expectation is as simple as learning and mastering a card counting strategy like the Hi-Lo. I’ll have more to say about counting cards and other advantage techniques in blackjack soon, but first, let me address bankroll management.
You need enough money in your bankroll to withstand the vagaries of fortune. No matter how good you are at blackjack, you’re going to have a small edge at best.
If you bet too high a percentage of your bankroll on each hand, you risk going broke before the long run kicks in.
A positive expectation only works in the long run.
I suggest not betting more than 1% to 5% of your bankroll on a hand of blackjack, no matter how good at the game you think you are.
This means that if you have a bankroll of $1000, you’d be betting between $10 and $50 per hand.
If you have a bankroll of $10,000, you’re betting between $100 and $500 per hand.
And keep in mind that you still have the possibility of going broke. Blackjack is a random game, even if you have appropriate strategies and bankroll management in place.
Casinos are able to withstand the vagaries of luck because they’re backed by tremendous bankrolls in the millions of dollars.
Most casinos could make a profit offering even money games just because they can absorb losing streaks better than players.
That’s the first pillar of your winning blackjack strategy – appropriate bankroll management.
Basic Strategy in Blackjack
The next thing you need to do is master basic blackjack strategy.
Basic strategy is just the mathematically best way to play every hand in the game.
Some hands are good and have a positive expectation almost any way you play them. Many hands are terrible and have a negative expectation any way you play them.
Basic strategy has looked at the expectation of every possible action in every possible situation and chosen the one with the highest mathematical expectation.
If you’re in a situation where multiple decision have a positive expected value, basic strategy tells you which decision has the highest positive expectation.
If you’re in a situation where every decision has a negative expectation, basic strategy tells you which decision loses you the least amount of money in the long run.
When you see people talking about how the house edge in blackjack is less than 1% or less than 0.5%, these estimates assume that you’re using basic strategy to make your decisions.
The average gambler, just playing by feel or guesswork, adds 2% to 4% to the house edge just by making basic strategy mistakes.
So, if you want to win at blackjack, you must master basic strategy first.
This will get you to where the house edge is as low as possible.
Learning How to Count Cards
Counting cards doesn’t require you to memorize all the cards that have been played so that you know which cards are left in the deck.
To succeed at card counting, you just need a way of estimating the ratio of high-value cards to low-value cards still in the deck.
Why does card counting work to get you an edge in blackjack?
The answer is simple:
You get paid off at 3 to 2 odds for a natural – a 2-card hand totaling 21.
The only way to get a blackjack is to get an ace and a card valued at 10 (the 10s, jacks, queens, and kings are worth 10 points each).
When a random deck of cards is dealt, the ratio of 10s and aces in the deck to the lower cards in the deck changes based on which cards have been dealt.
Sometimes you’ll wind up with a deck where there are more low-value cards than high-value cards.
And sometimes you’ll wind up with a deck where there are more high-value cards than low-value cards.
When there’s an imbalance resulting in a lot of 10s and aces, you have a higher probability of getting that 3 to 2 payout, so it makes sense to bet more in those situations.
When the reverse is true, you should bet less.
Here’s a simple way to figure this out:
The Hi-Lo Count
The most basic and probably most popular card counting method is the Hi-Lo System. Using this system, you assign a +1 or -1 value to some of the cards in the deck. You keep a running tally, called “the count,” using this plus or minus 1 system.
When low cards come out of the deck, the deck gets better for the player. These cards get counted as +1. The low cards that matter in the Hi-Lo Count are the 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, and 6s.
You’ll notice that the 7s, 8s, and 9s aren’t mentioned. For the purposes of this counting system, they each count as 0.
When the count is positive, you’ll bet more.
When the count is 0 or negative, you’ll bet less.
Just by doing this, you can convert a negative expectation game into a positive expectation game.
Drilling and Practicing
To learn how to do this, start by practicing at your kitchen table. Count through an entire deck of cards, adding and subtracting one. Time yourself.
You should arrive at a total of 0 when you get through the entire deck.
If you wind up with another total, you made a mistake, and you need to slow down and try again.
Once you can get to 0 several times in a row, it’s time to try to get faster.
The first step to doing this is to deal 2 cards at a time and count them that way.
This is will more accurately simulate what you’ll face in the casino anyway. Blackjack moves fast, especially if you’re heads-up with a dealer. An average casino dealer can deal over 200 hands per hour when playing heads-up with a player.
You should practice in conditions that simulate a casino. Turn the TV and the radio on at the same time so that you can deal with the noise. Get the kids to play in the kitchen while you’re practicing. That will help you deal with the peripheral activity going on within sight of you.
When you get to the casino, size your bets based on the count.
If the count is +1, increase the size of your bet from $10 to $20.
If it’s +2, increase the size of your bet from $10 to $30.
And so on, up to 5% of your bankroll.
Poker Heads Up Chart
Limit yourself to an hour at a specific table in a specific casino, and try to visit the casinos during different shifts.
Poker Heads Up Tournament
Conclusion
The best strategy to win at blackjack is to master basic strategy, learn to count cards, and risk less than 5% of your bankroll on a single bet.
Then don’t caught by the casino.